Biden and the Ayatollah's Game Plan
by Amir Taheri from The Gatestone Institute June 6th
[I]n dealing with the mullahs it is appeasement that encourages war.
[N]o sooner had Biden's appeasement squad been deployed than Ayatollah Ali Khamenei... revive[d] the embers of several conflicts into blazing flames.
The revised budget... includes a 62 percent raise in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' share. The Quds (Jerusalem) Force, which is in charge of exporting revolution and keeping the pot boiling in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, sees its budget increased by almost 40 percent. Some estimates put the total increase of Iran's military budget since 2019 at around 150 percent
[Khamenei's] kind of war is labelled in many different ways: proxy, asymmetric, low-intensity, low-cost, cottage industry war.... he pursues it through surrogates and mercenaries recruited in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen.
According to best estimates the Islamic Republic has spent around $20 billion in its various low-cost wars since 2000, a relatively modest sum compared to the huge cost of a full-scale war.... the regime needs a minimum of $60 billion a year to cover its basic costs and survive while continuing its decades-long campaign to de-stabilize the Middle East in the hope of what Kayhan, a mouthpiece for Khamenei, describes as "the inevitable tsunami of Islamic revolution"....
Blinken talks of his hopes for a "breakthrough"... Khamenei, too, wants a breakthrough based in a promise to enrich the uranium he does not want or need at a lower grade in exchange for the cash flow he does need to reactivate his momentarily interrupted special kind of war against the US and its regional allies, indeed against what is often known as " the world order".
Fear of an illusory war may lead to a deal which would allow a real war to continue behind the façade of an illusory peace.
Last February, when the new Biden administration launched its promised bid for a revival of the Obama "nuclear deal" with the Islamic Republic, apologists described it as an attempt at preventing another Middle Eastern war. This echoed the old mantra that in dealing with the Khomeinist regime, the choice is between appeasement and full-scale war.
Adepts of that mantra have failed to understand that in dealing with the mullahs it is appeasement that encourages war.
Thus, no sooner had President Biden's appeasement squad been deployed than Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the cleric heading the Khomeinist regime, ended almost four years of relative self-restraint by trying to revive the embers of several conflicts into blazing flames.
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