Dear Friends,
Can I please just update you all with some new information regarding our newly formed Bible Prophecy Foundation.
The Executive of the Bible Prophecy Foundation have asked me to be the Ministry Co-ordinator for the Foundation and I have accepted this opportunity to serve. It is a great honour and privilege which, if you really knew me, you would understand why I feel both unworthy and incapable. Please pray for me to walk humbly and serve faithfully under the unction and power of the Holy Spirit.
I am looking for brothers and sisters who hold a pre-millennial and pre-tribulation Rapture viewpoint to be Area Representatives for the Bible Prophecy Foundation. The tasks for such a voluntary position will vary from area to area throughout the UK, and dependent on the individual representatives preferences. These will range from simply being a point of contact at the end of a phone to arranging occasional or regular meetings to promoting DVDs/CDs of end times teaching.
Where two or three individuals in the same area wish to be involved in service then an informal committee could be formed. Although we desire to be both efficient and effective in our service it is important not to become rigid and "professional" in our ministry for the Lord Jesus. If you feel you can assist in any of these areas, please phone me on 01904 470751, or by email on briangemmell@hotmail.com, for I would be delighted to hear from you.
Our new BPF website can be found at http://www.bibleprophecyfoundation.org/ where you will find a lot more information about the organisation, and also pictures and a lot more information about our new Chairman, President, Secretary, Treasurer, and other Executive members.
Please pray for us all as we seek to serve the Lord Jesus Christ in these last perilous days, and to warn Christian and non-Christian alike that the Rapture of the Church to Glory is very close at hand.
Maranatha,
Brian.
Brian is a well known Bible teacher with a particular emphasis on Biblical end time events. Believing that these events are already underway, he believes that the Rapture of the Church to glory is imminent. Brian and Gilly (pic here with Bethan)travel throughout the UK and he also teaches in Europe and the USA. Although they are regularly in fellowships and churches who know them well, they are most happy to visit new venues to bring the message of the Gospel and the nearness of Christs return.
Tuesday, 31 July 2012
JEWISH WORLD REVIEW ARTICLE ON "GADGETS WORK UNDER YOUR SKIN"!
Jewish World Review
Gadgets work under your skin --- but are you ready?
By Jim Giles
New Scientist Magazine
Why the the cyborg future will come to be a reality.
JewishWorldReview.com | Left your cell phone at home again? A solution is at hand: Make sure it's with you at all times by having it implanted in your arm.
But given the opportunity, would you want your gadget to be a permanent part of you? The question may need
answering sooner than you think.
Researchers at Autodesk, a software company inToronto , Canada , checked to see whether the methods we currently
use to interface with our gadgets work when the device is implanted in human tissue. The answer was a resounding
"yes." A button, an LED and a touch sensor all functioned appropriately when embedded under the skin of a cadaver's
arm. The team was even able to communicate transcutaneously using a Bluetooth connection and charge the electronics
wirelessly.
"That's the bottom line," says Christian Holz of the Autodesk team, who presented the work in May at the Conference
on Human Factors in Computing Systems inAustin , Texas . "Traditional user interfaces work through the skin."
Would anyone want a piece of consumer electronics inside their body? There is something intrinsically creepy about
the idea. Plus there's a risk that the device could malfunction and need to be removed, or that it could infect the
surrounding tissue, not to mention the dystopian vision of a society in which our phones become tracking devices that
we can never be free of.
Yet there are reasons for thinking that the cyborg future will come to be. The research team, who worked with
University of Toronto anatomist Anne Agur, says that medical risks, such as infection, need to be better understood
before a device can be implanted into a living person. But it's a problem that manufacturers of existing implants, such
as stents and replacement hips, have successfully tackled.
There are also clear benefits to implanted electronics.
"The device is always there," says Holz. "You cannot lose it." And implants provide new interface methods. A gadget
similar to a smartphone could provide a calendar alert by means of a gentle sub-skin vibration, for example.
And that creepy feeling? It is a common reaction now, but may lessen as people become familiar with the technology.
The idea of using a machine to assist a human heart was once deemed unnatural, for example, but the insertion of a
pacemaker is now a routine procedure.
"In general, the trend has been that people are more and more willing to incorporate bits of the machine world into
themselves," says Sherry Turkle, a sociologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
"The perception (of this technology) 10 years ago would differ from today and from what we would get in 10
years' time," agrees Holz.
Turkle wants society to think seriously about the potential downsides of implanted electronics, including tracking. But
she has also studied how people relate to their cellphones and notes that some talk about them as if they were cyborgs.
"People literally cannot be without this device," Turkle says. "They don't feel the same when they are not connected.
We live with our phones as if they are part of our body."
If we feel that way, perhaps having a phone implanted isn't unnatural at all. It may just be the obvious thing to do with a device that we already feel highly attached to.
Gadgets work under your skin --- but are you ready?
By Jim Giles
New Scientist Magazine
Why the the cyborg future will come to be a reality.
JewishWorldReview.com | Left your cell phone at home again? A solution is at hand: Make sure it's with you at all times by having it implanted in your arm.
But given the opportunity, would you want your gadget to be a permanent part of you? The question may need
answering sooner than you think.
Researchers at Autodesk, a software company in
use to interface with our gadgets work when the device is implanted in human tissue. The answer was a resounding
"yes." A button, an LED and a touch sensor all functioned appropriately when embedded under the skin of a cadaver's
arm. The team was even able to communicate transcutaneously using a Bluetooth connection and charge the electronics
wirelessly.
"That's the bottom line," says Christian Holz of the Autodesk team, who presented the work in May at the Conference
on Human Factors in Computing Systems in
Would anyone want a piece of consumer electronics inside their body? There is something intrinsically creepy about
the idea. Plus there's a risk that the device could malfunction and need to be removed, or that it could infect the
surrounding tissue, not to mention the dystopian vision of a society in which our phones become tracking devices that
we can never be free of.
Yet there are reasons for thinking that the cyborg future will come to be. The research team, who worked with
before a device can be implanted into a living person. But it's a problem that manufacturers of existing implants, such
as stents and replacement hips, have successfully tackled.
There are also clear benefits to implanted electronics.
"The device is always there," says Holz. "You cannot lose it." And implants provide new interface methods. A gadget
similar to a smartphone could provide a calendar alert by means of a gentle sub-skin vibration, for example.
And that creepy feeling? It is a common reaction now, but may lessen as people become familiar with the technology.
The idea of using a machine to assist a human heart was once deemed unnatural, for example, but the insertion of a
pacemaker is now a routine procedure.
"In general, the trend has been that people are more and more willing to incorporate bits of the machine world into
themselves," says Sherry Turkle, a sociologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
"The perception (of this technology) 10 years ago would differ from today and from what we would get in 10
years' time," agrees Holz.
Turkle wants society to think seriously about the potential downsides of implanted electronics, including tracking. But
she has also studied how people relate to their cellphones and notes that some talk about them as if they were cyborgs.
"People literally cannot be without this device," Turkle says. "They don't feel the same when they are not connected.
We live with our phones as if they are part of our body."
If we feel that way, perhaps having a phone implanted isn't unnatural at all. It may just be the obvious thing to do with a device that we already feel highly attached to.
SAUDI MUSLIM WOMAN CONVERTS TO CHRISTIANITY AFTER DREAM ABOUT CHRIST!
Lebanon: Muslim Woman Converts To Christianity After Dream About Christ, Flees Saudi Arabia
By Tafeel Al-Yousif -”AL-KHOBAR — A Saudi girl who recently embraced Christianity and fled the country for refuge in Lebanon told the host of a religious program on an Arabic TV channel that she was tired of performing prayers and fasting during Ramadan.
The girl, who said her name was Maryam, said praying and fasting did not bring her any benefits. She also criticized the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice (Hai’a) and claimed that she was raised to hate Judaism and Christianity but fell in love with the religions after she found peace in Christianity.
She said she became a Christian after she had a dream one night. In it, she climbed to the skies and heard God telling her that Jesus is His son. She said that she had been living in the Kingdom since she was 17.
Meanwhile, Christian groups of all denominations in Lebanon have dismissed reports that the Saudi girl is living in a church in the country.
Maryam’s father filed a complaint against her two former co-workers, a Saudi and a Lebanese, accusing them of helping his daughter illegally flee the Kingdom and embrace Christianity. The Bureau of Investigation and Prosecution (BIP) in Al-Khobar accused the men of forcing the girl to convert and arrested them. However, both men were later released on bail while their case has been referred to a court in Al-Khobar.
The Lebanese man, who is accused of playing a major role in the girl’s conversion, has had his name put on a travel ban list.
The Saudi Embassy in Beirut is coordinating with the concerned authorities in the country to convince the girl to return to the Kingdom. It is expected that the Al-Khobar District Court will look into the case, the first of its kind in the Kingdom, soon.” Source – Saudi Gazette.
Flashback: Dreams And Visions Moving Muslims To Christ – “… The film documents and dramatizes Ali’s story and several other Muslims who came to faith in Jesus through a dream or vision. ‘We’re seeing that all around. We’re hearing about people that have never even thought about Jesus as savior,’ Tom Doyle, with e3 Ministries, said. ‘They’re content Muslims and they’re having dreams over and over.’ Doyle and his wife Joanna take the gospel to the Muslim world. He’s also the author of the upcoming book, Dreams and Visions: Is Jesus Awakening the Muslim World?… The phenomenon of dreams and visions has surfaced throughout the Muslim world, from Indonesia to Morocco.” Read more.
The girl, who said her name was Maryam, said praying and fasting did not bring her any benefits. She also criticized the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice (Hai’a) and claimed that she was raised to hate Judaism and Christianity but fell in love with the religions after she found peace in Christianity.
She said she became a Christian after she had a dream one night. In it, she climbed to the skies and heard God telling her that Jesus is His son. She said that she had been living in the Kingdom since she was 17.
Meanwhile, Christian groups of all denominations in Lebanon have dismissed reports that the Saudi girl is living in a church in the country.
Maryam’s father filed a complaint against her two former co-workers, a Saudi and a Lebanese, accusing them of helping his daughter illegally flee the Kingdom and embrace Christianity. The Bureau of Investigation and Prosecution (BIP) in Al-Khobar accused the men of forcing the girl to convert and arrested them. However, both men were later released on bail while their case has been referred to a court in Al-Khobar.
The Lebanese man, who is accused of playing a major role in the girl’s conversion, has had his name put on a travel ban list.
The Saudi Embassy in Beirut is coordinating with the concerned authorities in the country to convince the girl to return to the Kingdom. It is expected that the Al-Khobar District Court will look into the case, the first of its kind in the Kingdom, soon.” Source – Saudi Gazette.
Flashback: Dreams And Visions Moving Muslims To Christ – “… The film documents and dramatizes Ali’s story and several other Muslims who came to faith in Jesus through a dream or vision. ‘We’re seeing that all around. We’re hearing about people that have never even thought about Jesus as savior,’ Tom Doyle, with e3 Ministries, said. ‘They’re content Muslims and they’re having dreams over and over.’ Doyle and his wife Joanna take the gospel to the Muslim world. He’s also the author of the upcoming book, Dreams and Visions: Is Jesus Awakening the Muslim World?… The phenomenon of dreams and visions has surfaced throughout the Muslim world, from Indonesia to Morocco.” Read more.
PALESTINIANS ATTACK MITT ROMNEY! IS HE A FRIEND OF ISRAEL? OR IS HE THE PROPHESIED "WHITE HORSE" OF MORMONISM END TIMES THEOLOGY?
Palestinians attack Mitt Romney for 'racist' comments
Mitt Romney has been accused of racism for suggesting to Jewish donors that "culture" might explain Palestinians' income inferiority to Israel.
A senior Palestinian aide said the Republican presidential candidate had failed to note economic restrictions placed by the Israeli occupation.But the Romney campaign said his remarks in Israel were misinterpreted.
The former Massachusetts governor is now in Poland, for the third and final leg of a week-long foreign tour.
Mr Romney is set to face Barack Obama in November's presidential election.
'Hand of providence'
Speaking at a breakfast of about 40 donors in Jerusalem on Monday, Mr Romney said he had thought about how Israel had achieved greater prosperity than its neighbours.
"This breakfast remark is perhaps not a gaffe in any sense - it is of a piece with [Mr Romney's] attitude generally, and what he thinks.”
"As you come here and you see the GDP [Gross Domestic Product] per capita, for instance, in Israel which is about $21,000 dollars, and compare that with the GDP per capita just across the areas managed by the Palestinian Authority, which is more like $10,000 per capita, you notice such a dramatically stark difference in economic vitality," Mr Romney is reported to have said.
He referred to a book called The Wealth And Poverty Of Nations, by David Landes, which examines how some societies became more prosperous than those of their neighbours.Mr Romney said he had concluded from the book that "if you could learn anything from the economic history of the world it's this: culture makes all the difference.
He added: "And as I come here and I look out over this city and consider the accomplishments of the people of this nation, I recognise the power of at least culture and a few other things."
Mr Romney also said he recognised "hand of providence in selecting this place [Israel]".
The economic disparity between Israel and the Palestinian Authority is even wider than Mr Romney's remarks suggest.
According to a World Bank report, in 2011 Israel's GDP was $31,000 per head, compared with just over $1,500 in the West Bank and Gaza.
'Scratching their heads'
Saeb Erekat, an aide to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, responded quickly to the comments.
"It is a racist statement and this man doesn't realise that the Palestinian economy cannot reach its potential because there is an Israeli occupation," Mr Erekat said.
"It seems to me this man lacks information, knowledge, vision and understanding of this region and its people.
"He also lacks knowledge about the Israelis themselves. I have not heard any Israeli official speak about cultural superiority," he added.
Romney campaign spokeswoman Andrea Saul said his remarks had been "grossly mischaracterised".
His campaign added that the candidate's comments had been more general and had included examples of income disparities between the US and Mexico, and Chile and Ecuador.
Meanwhile, a White House spokesman said Mr Romney's comments had left some people "scratching their heads a little bit".
At the breakfast, Mr Romney sat next to casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who has given millions of dollars to Republican presidential campaigns.
The owner of the American football team New York Jets, Woody Johnson, and hedge fund manager Paul Singer were also guests at the breakfast, which is thought to have raised about $1m.
Deputy Israeli Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon came to Mr Romney's defence.
"It is unfortunate that the Palestinians find every reason and opportunity to discomfit or to criticise or to attack Israel or anyone who pays respect to Israel and Jewish culture," he said, reports the Associated Press.
On Sunday, Mr Romney caused controversy when he described Jerusalem as the country's capital.
He said in an interview with CNN that he would favour moving the US embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv, where it is currently located.
The status of Jerusalem is a key issue in peace negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
Mr Romney's visit to Israel followed a three-day visit to London. There, he was criticised in the British press for expressing doubt about whether Britain was ready to stage the Olympic Games.
Sunday, 29 July 2012
SYRIA'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARSENAL BY MELANIE PHILLIPS.
OPINION PIECE: SYRIA'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARSENAL
(by Melanie Phillips - July 26th, 2012)
There is a degree of panic, and rightly so, over whether the Syrian tyrant Basher al Assad will use chemical weapons against either his own people or foreign attackers. His regime has this week threatened to do the latter, thus finally confirming what was long suspected but never openly admitted, that Syria possesses chemical weapons. It is believed to have mustard gas as well as nerve agents such as tabun, sarin and VX. The fear is either that the Assad regime uses them or that they fall into the hands of Hezbollah, al Qaeda or other Islamic terrorist groups. Either prospect is utterly nightmarish. Even Russia says it has told Syria it is unacceptable to threaten to use them.
In the last few days, this has been much discussed. What has not been raised, however, is the question of how Syria managed to develop such a chemical weapons stockpile in the first place. No-one in the western media seems remotely curious about how Syria has managed to arm itself to the teeth with them beneath the radar of international scrutiny.
Dr Danny Shoham, at the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Israel, is an expert in chemical and biological warfare. In a Middle East Quarterly article in 2002, Guile, Gas and Germs: Syria's Ultimate Weapons, he set out the extraordinary history of Syria's chemical weapons programme.
It first received chemical weapons from Egypt, he says, as far back as 1973. By the late eighties, it was saying it possessed an 'answer to Israel's nuclear threat'; people who read between the lines understood this meant Syria now possessed non-conventional weapons. In 1992, Syria refused to commit itself to the elimination of chemical weapons. From the 1970s onwards, wrote Shoham, Syria covertly developed a chemical weapons programme, aided by a wide variety of European and Asian suppliers including the Soviet Union, West Germany and middlemen and brokers located in Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, France, Britain, and Austria.
Shoham concluded:
'Syria now possesses the most formidable CBW capabilities of any Arab state. Its arsenal probably even exceeds that of Iran in quantity and quality. Yet in building it from scratch, under the rule of Hafiz al-Asad, Syria has always managed to stay just outside the spotlight of international scrutiny. It did so by diffusing its efforts, and by playing its political cards with supreme skill-entering (and exiting) the Arab-Israeli "peace process" at just the right times, joining the Kuwait war coalition, cutting back at the last moment on its support for Kurdish separatism in Turkey, and so on. The West has always had some reason not to include Syria on its blackest list. Other regional problems have also drawn attention away from Syria. The United States is still preoccupied with Iraq and Iran, alongside which Syria appears benign.
'But at this moment in time, it is a fact: Syria has more destruct ive capabilities than either of them. The West is often accused of a double standard-of tolerating Israel's possession of WMD, while preventing those same weapons from coming into the hands of Arabs or Muslims. But if there is such a double standard, then how does one explain the West's silence, if not complicity, in the building of Syria's CBW capabilities? A simple explanation would be to say that Syria outwitted the world. But that explanation may be too simple. Many parties profited from the Syrian build-up, and foreign strategists thought that a strong Syrian deterrent might give Hafiz al-Asad the confidence to make peace.'
That, however, was back in 2002. In 2003 the US, Britain and others went to war in Iraq to make the world safe from Saddam Hussein and his pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. Ever since, however, we have been told that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, and the proof of that is that none was ever found - surely one of the most profoundly illogical and imbecilic formulations ever to have fallen from human lips.
At the time, however, there were a number of reports that enormous truck movements across the border from Iraq into Syria suggested that some of these WMD had been moved there. Saddam's Air Vice-Marshal Georges Sada, whom I interviewed, said he was absolutely certain that WMD had been moved from Iraq to Syria. All of this was however brushed aside for, as the bien pensant world has never stopped intoning with positively religious fervour, 'we were taken to war in Iraq on a lie'.
But now we know that Syria possesses an arsenal of chemical weapons. So could any of this have come from Saddam's Iraq, just as it was transferred from Egypt two decades previously?
In a more recent paper published in 2006 in the International Journal of Intelligence and Counter-Intelli gence , An Antithesis on the Fate of Iraq's Chemical and Biological Weapons, Dr Shoham wrote that the two official reports - Duelfer and Carnegie in 2004 - that supposedly exonerated Saddam of still having WMD by the outbreak of war ignored much information that indicated the smuggling of chemical and biological weapons from Iraq into Syria. Although the most knowledgeable and experienced individuals tracking Iraq's WMD were members of UNSCOM, they were largely excluded by the US intelligence community. Ill-trained soldiers would go to a site, find something suspicious, return 48 hours later and find it had disappeared.
In October 2003, the US intelligence community publicly pointed for the first time to transfers of WMD from Iraq to Syria. The Director of the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, James Clapper, said it linked the disappearance of Iraqi WMD with the huge number of Iraqi trucks entering Syria before and during the US invasion; based on satellite imagery, it assessed that these trucks contained missiles and WMD components. Shipments to Syria were supervised by Saddam's most loyal intelligence agents. Once the shipments were made, these agents would leave and the regular border guards resumed their posts.
Moreover, captured Iraqi documents record that the Russian 'spetsnaz' moved many of Saddam's weapons and related goods, including chemicals used to make chemical weapons plus missile components and MIG jet parts, out of Iraq and into Syria in the weeks before the 2003 invasion.
In 2004 Nizar Najoef, a Syrian journalist who defected from Syria to Europe, claimed he had received information from contacts in Syrian intelligence that:
* Tunnels dug under al Baida near Hama in northern Syria were an integral part of an underground factory, built by the North Koreans, for producing Syrian Scud missiles. Iraqi chemical weapons and long range missiles were stored there;
* Vital parts of Iraq's WMD were stored in the village of Tal Snan, north of Salamija where there was a big Syrian air force camp;
* Iraqi WMD was also stored in the city of Sjinsjar on Syria's border with Lebanon.
Shoham concluded:
'Apparently, then, the prevailing perception of the "failure" to find Iraq's CBW arsenal ought to be rethought...Strategically, Iraq's enduring arsenal may affect Syria's CBW capabilities, provided that the transfer did in fact take place...'
Might some of Basher al Assad's chemical (and possibly biological) arsenal have Saddam Hussein's name on it?
Melanie Phillips.
MUSLIMS GET THEIR WAY AT THE LONDON OLYMPICS!
International Olympic Committee Bows To Allah, Sets Up Barrier For Lebanese Judo Team To Separate Jews
i
Rate This
In the Muslim world, only Islamic spirits are permitted. The Olympic spirit is clearly forbidden …
“The Lebanese judo team forced International Olympic Committee officials to erect a barrier between themselves and the Israeli judo squad, Friday afternoon in London, just hours before the Games’ opening ceremony, reports Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot.
Both teams were scheduled to train inside London’s ExCeL center but Lebanon’s team did not want to be seen by the Israeli one, and IOC officials heeded to the Lebanese’s demand after the team’s coach demanded separation.
This is not the first time Middle Eastern judo teams have caused a political stir. In February, Egypt’s Ramadan Dawris defeated Arik Zeevi of Israel, but afterwards, Dawris refused to shake the hand of his competitor.” Source – the algemeiner.
Iranian Olympian Claims ‘Gut Infection’ To Avoid Competing Against Israeli – “For 33 years, Iranian athletes have forfeited or withdrawn to avoid matching up against Israeli athletes in international competition. It was all supposed to change in London. Earlier this week, Bahram Afsharzadeh, the head of Iran’s Olympic committee, said ‘we will be truthful to sport. We just follow the sportsmanship and play every country.’ That very same day, the Tehran Times reported that Iranian judokan Javad Mahjoub would be withdrawing from the Olympics with ‘a gut infection.’ Why does this matter? Mahjoub, in the 100kg judo competition, was the only Iranian athlete who could possibly have matched up against an Israeli …” Read more.
Maybe the thought of a humiliating loss to a Jew must have made the poor guy sick. What ever happened to “Allah is Greater”? …
Palestinians Welcome IOC’s Rejection of Moment of Silence for Murdered Israeli Athletes, Saying It Would Be ‘Racist’ – “The Palestinians are praising the International Olympic Committee’s decision not to hold a moment of silence in memory of the 11 Israeli athletes murdered in the 1972 Munich Olympics in the London Games’ opening ceremony, Yedioth Ahronoth reported Friday. Jibril Rajoub, chairman of the Palestinian Olympic Committee, sent a thank you letter to IOC President President Jacques Rogge… ‘Sport is a bridge for love, unification and for spreading peace among the nations,’ he wrote. ‘It must not be a cause for divisiveness and for the spreading of racism.’” Read more.
Saturday, 28 July 2012
RUSSIA SEEKS TO SET UP NAVAL BASES ABROAD.
***********************************************
Russia seeks to set up naval bases abroad
Naval chief confirms talks with Cuba, Vietnam and the Seychelles about setting up overseas facilities for Russian ships.
Russia is talking to Cuba, Vietnam and the Seychelles about housing Russian navy ships, its naval chief has said.
Vice-admiral Viktor Chirkov told the RIA Novosti state news agency Russia was in talks with the three countries about setting up maintenance and supply facilities but would not give further details.Russia's only existing naval base outside the former Soviet Union is located in the Syrian port of Tartus. A squadron of Russian navy ships, including several assault ships carrying marines, is heading to Tartus in a show of support for a longtime ally that Moscow has protected from international sanctions and continues to supply with weapons.
Chirkov's statement marked a sharp about-face for Russia, which closed a Soviet-era naval base at Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay and a spy base in Lourdes in Cuba in the early 2000s during President Vladimir Putin's first term.
Along with financial reasons, that move was part of Putin's bid to improve ties with the US. But relations with Washington deteriorated and Putin, who was re-elected to a third term in March, has grown increasingly eager to challenge Washington. During his election campaign, he accused the US of encouraging protest against his 12-year rule in order to weaken Russia and pledged to strengthen the nation's military might.Friday, 27 July 2012
THE LATEST "NEWS FROM ISRAEL" BULLETIN BY MY GOOD FRIEND DAVID HOYLE, AND FELLOW COLLEAGUE IN THE BIBLE PROPHECY FOUNDATION.
BIBLE PROPHECY FOUNDATION
News from Israel - David Hoyle July 25th 2012
There is much argument in the press on an ongoing basis about the legality, or otherwise, of Israel ’s settlements in the so called “West Bank ” (Biblical Judea and Samaria ).
The United Nations and European Community are not surprisingly opposed to all settlement building and regard it as illegal. Both Barack Obama and William Hague among others are vociferous in their condemnation of Israel on a regular basis.
A committee appointed by Mr Netanyahu to examine the legality of Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria issued the following statement on July 4th 2012 . “Israeli’s have a legal right to settle that region”. The committee head, retired Israeli Supreme Court Justice Edmond Levy declared “According to international law Israeli’s have a legal right to settle all of Judea and Samaria , at the very least the lands that Israel controls under agreement with the Palestinian Authority. Therefore the establishment of Jewish settlements (in Judea and Samaria ) is, in itself, not illegal.”
The detailed report went on to say ”The fourth Geneva Convention on the transfer of populations does not apply, and was not intended to apply to communities such as those established in Judea and Samaria.”
Perhaps in the light of this edict we may anticipate the USA moving its embassy to Jerusalem , a move already passed by both houses of Congress.
A Two State Solution?
In the home of the UK ambassador to Israel Dhud Ehud Ya´ari who works for Israeli television with a mandate to liaise with the Arab Community said, ‘There has been an explosion in the Middle East and Islamic dust is falling. We do not know the outcome’. He went on to say that in his discussions with Israel ’s Arab Community he has found that 99% want a one state solution with no Israel . He further said that in the countries that have freed themselves from dictatorships the people are no longer subject to a regime but are citizens of a country!
Mr Abbass has, of course, often reported Mr Arafat’s desire for a Palestinian state from “the river to the sea.” A biblical study of God’s promise of the land to Abraham through Isaac and the apportionment of the land to the different tribes leaves no doubt to the ultimate outcome. All the land from the Mediterranean to the river Jordan and an area including much land “occupied” by Arabs will one day belong to Israel .
God keeps His covenant with the Jewish people, if He doesn’t our salvation would be in doubt as He will also break His promises to us! Believers in Replacement Theology take note!
Anti Semitism
Takes many forms but on all fronts it is rampant today. In its more violent form it took the form at last week’s bomb attack on Israeli tourists in the Bulgarian resort of Burgas. Seven people died and thirty five of the injured were flown to Tel Aviv for treatment. There have been other attempts in India , Thailand , Azerbaijan and Georgia . Many of these attacks and attempted attacks are blamed on Hezbollah a proxy of Iran , and by the time you read this you may well have heard of Israel ’s retaliation.
In another form Anti Semitism was evident in the Anglican Church’s vote to send monitors to investigate Palestinian human rights. As always, no consideration of Israel ’s position. This vote led to the Mayor of Hendon, Melvyn Benjamin calling for a severing of relations between Jewish organisations and the Anglican Church. Vivian Wiseman chairman of the Jewish Board of Deputies said “we shall not cut links but it will not be business as usual.”
Elsewhere the BBC refused to identify Jerusalem as the capital of Israel on its Olympic website. The Palestinian team was listed as having East Jerusalem as its capital. After protests the BBC listed Jerusalem as Israel ’s “seat of government although most foreign embassies are in Tel Aviv.” The Palestinian page was changed to East Jerusalem , intended seat of Government, Ramallah its administrative capital.
Amnesty International
Has defended a senior officer accused of coordinating campaigns against Israel . He claims that “Israel should be listed alongside North Korea and Iran as a stupid, dictatorial regime.” He threatened to assault an Israeli supporter at an Amnesty event. On another occasion he said that Israel had the same wanton attitude to human beings as Sudan and Burma ! Anti-Semitism is alive and well at Amnesty International.
Just 70 days after Shaul Mofaz took Kadima into the coalition he resigned because of the failure of Mr Netanyahu to honour the coalition agreement to pass a bill removing the exemption from the IDF draft for the ultra orthodox. This now leaves Mr Netanyahu as leader of a right wing government dominated by nationalist and religious hard liners and brings the possibility of an election nearer.
Having been found not guilty of corruption Ehud Olmert may now return to politics and seek to take over as leader of Kadima.
Arab Spring (so called)
With the imminent fall of the Assad regime 30 000 refugees have crossed into Lebanon and the situation grows ever more dangerous. It is reported that many border posts between Syria and Turkey also Syria and Lebanon are now in rebel hands. Most people are fleeing the fighting but should the regime fall the Alawites would have to fight to the death or flee, most probably over the Golan Heights to Israel ’s border. There has been and argument in Israel as to whether to open the border or not, but the decision has been taken and this week Ehud Barak, Israel ’s Defence Minister said “ Israel will stop Syrian refugees entering the Golan Heights if they try to flee there.” Apart from Lebanon many refugees have fled to turkey but the Christian community who were protected and well treated by Mr Assad will be in grave danger of a massacre if the regime fell as they declined to take part in the uprising! Please pray for them as they wait with anxiety.
Hamas
Speaking at a conference in Tunisia Khaled Mashaal said “We shall continue to resist Israel and seek the recovery of occupied Palestinian territory.” He said Palestinian lands had been looted! Since the revolution in Tunisia unemployment has risen, the country is racked by strikes, and the economy is shrinking.
On every front the Arab Spring is bringing problems not improvements.
Interesting and Good News
Parts of ancient Acre ’s (Ptolemais) ancient harbour, 2300 years old, have been uncovered. Akko in Hebrew was the most important port in the Hellenistic period (3rd and 4th century BC).
Researchers from Tel Aviv University have recently discovered a collection of gold and silver jewellery from around 1100 BC hidden in a vessel at Tel Megiddo. One piece is a gold ear ring decorated with ibexes which is described as “without parallel.”
Scientists from the Wieizmann Institute in Rehovot have designed a robot that can be controlled using brainwaves! The team who designed it hope it can be used to help the paralysed, people who had strokes and those with locked in syndrome.
Labour’s Baroness Blackstone
Has attacked the sale of products from Israeli West Bank settlements. She also said that if Israel struck at Iran with American backing the base at Diego Garcia should not be used.
Olympics
With the possible threat of an attack on Israel ’s athletes, the Israeli secret service Shin Bet has been flown in to aid their security. Security on the athletes’ arrival was felt to be insufficient.
Keep praying for Israel and the Jewish people as the Lord’s return grows ever more imminent.
You can still book for our Israel Tour in October, but move fast! Tel. 01423 881803 for brochure.
Breaking News
Writing in today’s Times the former prime minister of Spain JosÄ“ Maria Aznar states Israel was excluded from the first meeting of the Global Terrorist Forum so as to not offend its host Recep ErdoÄŸon of Turkey . Worse still, a meeting of the victims of terror also excluded Israel . This on the event of the anniversary of the attack on the Olympic village when 11 Israeli is despicable. Mr Aznar was himself a victim of a terrorist attack!
Israel Radio have reported that at least six of the 28 members of the Kadima party in the Israeli parliament say they will leave the party to join Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. It is reported that Netanyahu has offered them senior government posts. The expected defections mean that Netanyahu would have a solid majority of 71 members in the 120 seat parliament, making early elections less likely.
Party activists say party leader Shaul Mofaz must quit as leader, citing low numbers in the polls.
David Hoyle.
David Hoyle from the Bible Prophecy Foundation.
David Hoyle.
Tuesday, 17 July 2012
Sunday, 15 July 2012
THE NEW BIBLE PROPHECY FOUNDATION.
Dear Brothers and Sisters,
Those of you who follow Facebook may have seen my brief post recording the first meeting of the Bible Prophecy Foundation Executive, listing the current, initial members and stating that "the Show is on the Road!". This email will briefly outline the content of the meeting and in the interests of transparency you are free to circulate it at will.
The mission of the Bible Prophecy Foundation is to proclaim the soon-return of the Lord Jesus Christ to the Church and to the World. The Exec. agreed that there should always be an evangelistic emphasis to our endeavours and the the call to holiness within the church should be clearly part of our message. Our eschatological position is affirmed as pre-millennial and we will steadfastly teach from the Scriptures that the Rapture of the true Church of Jesus Christ is before the tribulation. We will, however, maintain close fellowship with other Bible teachers who hold a different point of view on the timing of the Rapture, Jacob Prasch and Bob Mitchell being two dear brothers who are examples of this, and we will be happy to have them address meetings held under the egis of B.P.F.
The first meeting of this six person Executive met at my home on the 13th July for prayer, discussion and fellowship over dinner. David Hoyle was selected as Chairman, Roy Cook as Vice-chairman and Treasurer, and Steve Lloyd as Secretary and Web Manager. The appointments were by unanimous decision. Geoff Farnell, Donald Cameron and Brian Gemmell were selected as Executive members. The Rev Bill Freel has been unanimously invited to be our President. Two or Three Vice-Presidents will be invited in due course after we have submitted the matter to the Lord in prayer.
These are the initial members of the Executive and others will be added as the Holy Spirit leads. A larger group, known as the Reference Group, of like-minded brethren will be drawn together over the next few months and this group, with the Executive will provide the organising and leadership personnel aided by a substantial number of Area Representatives throughout the world. Renato Advento in Dipalok City in the Phillipines has already taken up the banner of B.P.F. there and is our official contact in that nation. There are a number of regional/area representatives that have come to our notice including a number of you who have already volunteered. This matter is in hand so "watch this space "!!!!! The leadership of the Foundation is co-equal and plural. We believe that the best description of the leadership role is as facilitators. The pursuit of personal ministry objectives and ambitions is to be avoided at all cost.
The object of this organisation is the widespread proclamation of the end times message which is heard so little in the pulpits of the land by meetings, literature, use of the secular media (including internet TV) and the various social media facilities available. Our website, which is accessible but still being developed, is www.bibleprophecyfoundation.org and we have established a Facebook page. We are specifically seeking to inform and enlighten the "under 50's". By the provision of speakers, literature and other resources we seek to encourage preachers and pastors outside of the B.P.F. to preach/teach the message of the Second Coming and devote particular time to the study of eschatology within the whole counsel of God. We commit ourselves to a ministry of prayer in all these matters.
We decided not to become an official Charity. In our approach to raising funds we wish to emulate George Muller as much as our weak flesh allows. When the time is appropriate and funds are available we will open a simple current a/c with a High St. Bank. We will not hold investments, Bonds, Stocks and Shares and the like. As much as we are able we will self fund Executive meetings but provide help for any brother seeking to assist the B.P.F. but lacking the personal funds to cover his own expenses. Our B.P.F. finances will be open to scrutiny by all those involved with the Foundation. The Executive agreed to operate in a transparent and open manner not only in the area of finances but in all our business. We will not subject our meetings to caveats of secrecy and operate as an elite above the Foundation as a whole.
The above notes do not aspire to be complete and exact minutes of the meeting but are offered to give you a sense and "flavour" of what we are about and how we operate. We will meet again on the 2nd Thursday in September and thereafter at least every two months and aim to have a public launch meeting in Blackburn (Lancs) on Saturday 24th November in a local Baptist Church. Exact details nearer the time.
Maranatha, Brian.
Those of you who follow Facebook may have seen my brief post recording the first meeting of the Bible Prophecy Foundation Executive, listing the current, initial members and stating that "the Show is on the Road!". This email will briefly outline the content of the meeting and in the interests of transparency you are free to circulate it at will.
The mission of the Bible Prophecy Foundation is to proclaim the soon-return of the Lord Jesus Christ to the Church and to the World. The Exec. agreed that there should always be an evangelistic emphasis to our endeavours and the the call to holiness within the church should be clearly part of our message. Our eschatological position is affirmed as pre-millennial and we will steadfastly teach from the Scriptures that the Rapture of the true Church of Jesus Christ is before the tribulation. We will, however, maintain close fellowship with other Bible teachers who hold a different point of view on the timing of the Rapture, Jacob Prasch and Bob Mitchell being two dear brothers who are examples of this, and we will be happy to have them address meetings held under the egis of B.P.F.
The first meeting of this six person Executive met at my home on the 13th July for prayer, discussion and fellowship over dinner. David Hoyle was selected as Chairman, Roy Cook as Vice-chairman and Treasurer, and Steve Lloyd as Secretary and Web Manager. The appointments were by unanimous decision. Geoff Farnell, Donald Cameron and Brian Gemmell were selected as Executive members. The Rev Bill Freel has been unanimously invited to be our President. Two or Three Vice-Presidents will be invited in due course after we have submitted the matter to the Lord in prayer.
These are the initial members of the Executive and others will be added as the Holy Spirit leads. A larger group, known as the Reference Group, of like-minded brethren will be drawn together over the next few months and this group, with the Executive will provide the organising and leadership personnel aided by a substantial number of Area Representatives throughout the world. Renato Advento in Dipalok City in the Phillipines has already taken up the banner of B.P.F. there and is our official contact in that nation. There are a number of regional/area representatives that have come to our notice including a number of you who have already volunteered. This matter is in hand so "watch this space "!!!!! The leadership of the Foundation is co-equal and plural. We believe that the best description of the leadership role is as facilitators. The pursuit of personal ministry objectives and ambitions is to be avoided at all cost.
The object of this organisation is the widespread proclamation of the end times message which is heard so little in the pulpits of the land by meetings, literature, use of the secular media (including internet TV) and the various social media facilities available. Our website, which is accessible but still being developed, is www.bibleprophecyfoundation.org and we have established a Facebook page. We are specifically seeking to inform and enlighten the "under 50's". By the provision of speakers, literature and other resources we seek to encourage preachers and pastors outside of the B.P.F. to preach/teach the message of the Second Coming and devote particular time to the study of eschatology within the whole counsel of God. We commit ourselves to a ministry of prayer in all these matters.
We decided not to become an official Charity. In our approach to raising funds we wish to emulate George Muller as much as our weak flesh allows. When the time is appropriate and funds are available we will open a simple current a/c with a High St. Bank. We will not hold investments, Bonds, Stocks and Shares and the like. As much as we are able we will self fund Executive meetings but provide help for any brother seeking to assist the B.P.F. but lacking the personal funds to cover his own expenses. Our B.P.F. finances will be open to scrutiny by all those involved with the Foundation. The Executive agreed to operate in a transparent and open manner not only in the area of finances but in all our business. We will not subject our meetings to caveats of secrecy and operate as an elite above the Foundation as a whole.
The above notes do not aspire to be complete and exact minutes of the meeting but are offered to give you a sense and "flavour" of what we are about and how we operate. We will meet again on the 2nd Thursday in September and thereafter at least every two months and aim to have a public launch meeting in Blackburn (Lancs) on Saturday 24th November in a local Baptist Church. Exact details nearer the time.
Maranatha,
Tuesday, 3 July 2012
17 (NO MAKE THAT 23) REASONS TO BE EXTREMELY CONCERNED ABOUT THE SECOND HALF OF 2012!!
What is the second half of 2012 going to bring? Are things going to get even worse than they are right now? Unfortunately, that appears more likely with each passing day. I will admit that I am extremely concerned about the second half of 2012. Historically, a financial crisis is much more likely to begin in the fall than during any other season of the year.
Just think about it. The stock market crash of 1929 happened in the fall. "Black Monday" happened on October 19th, 1987. The financial crisis of 2008 started in the fall. There just seems to be something about the fall that brings out the worst in the financial markets. But of course there is not a stock market crash every year.
So are there specific reasons why we should be extremely concerned about what is coming this year? Yes, there are. The ingredients for a "perfect storm" are slowly coming together, and in the months ahead we could very well see the next wave of the economic collapse strike.
Sadly, we have never even come close to recovering from the last recession, and this next crisis might end up being even more painful than the last one.
The following are 17 reasons to be extremely concerned about the second half of 2012....
#1 Historical Trends
A recent IMF research paper by Luc Laeven and Fabián Valencia showed that a banking crisis is far more likely to start in September than in any other month.
So what will this September bring?
#2 JP Morgan
Do you remember back in May when JP Morgan announced that it would be taking a 2 billion dollar trading loss on some derivatives trades gone bad? Well, the New York Times is now reporting that the real figure could reach 9 billion dollars, but nobody really knows for sure. At some point is JP Morgan going to need a bailout? If so, what is that going to do to the U.S. financial system?
#3 Derivatives
Last week, Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of 15 major global banks. As a result, a number of them have been required to post billions of dollars in additional collateral against derivatives exposures....
Citigroup’s two-notch long-term rating downgrade from A3 to Baa2 could have led to US$500m in additional liquidity and funding demands due to derivative triggers and exchange margin requirements, according to the bank’s 10Q regulatory filing at the end of the first quarter.
Morgan Stanley – which Moody’s downgraded from A2 to Baa1 – said a two-notch downgrade from both Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s could spur an additional US$6.8bn of collateral requirements in its latest 10Q. The bank did not break down its potential collateral calls under a scenario where only Moody’s downgraded the bank below the Single A threshold.
Royal Bank of Scotland estimated it may have to post £9bn of collateral as a result of the one-notch Moody’s downgrade to Baa1 in a statement on June 21, but did not detail how much of this additional requirement was driven by margin for swaps exposures.
The worldwide derivatives market is starting to show some cracks, and at some point this is going to become a major disaster.
Remember, the 9 largest U.S. banks have a total of more than 200 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives. When this bubble completely bursts it is going to be impossible to fix.
#4 LEAP/E2020 Warning
LEAP/E2020 has issued a red alert for the global financial system for this fall. They are warning that the "second half of 2012" will represent a "major inflection point" for the global economic system....
The shock of the autumn 2008 will seem like a small summer storm compared to what will affect planet in several months.
In fact LEAP/E2020 has never seen the chronological convergence of such a series of explosive and so fundamental factors (economy, finances, geopolitical…) since 2006, the start of its work on the global systemic crisis.
Logically, in our modest attempt to regularly publish a “crisis weather forecast”, we must therefore give our readers a “Red Alert” because the upcoming events which are readying themselves to shake the world system next September/ October belong to this category.
#5 Increasing Pessimism
One recent survey of corporate executives found that only 20 percent of them expect the global economy to improve over the next 12 months and 48 percent of them expect the global economy to get worse over the next 12 months.
#6 Spain
The Spanish financial system is basically a total nightmare at this point. Moody's recently downgraded Spanish debt to one level above junk status, and earlier this week Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of 28 major Spanish banks.
According to CNBC, Spain's short-term borrowing costs are now about three times higher than they were just one month ago....
Spain's short-term borrowing costs nearly tripled at auction on Tuesday, underlining the country's precarious finances as it struggles against recession and juggles with a debt crisis among its newly downgraded banks.
The yield paid on a 3-month bill was 2.362 percent, up from just 0.846 percent a month ago. For six-month paper, it leapt to 3.237 percent from 1.737 percent in May.
Needless to say, this is very, very bad news.
#7 Italy
The situation in Italy continues to deteriorate and many analysts believe that it could be one of the next dominoes to fall. The following is from a recent Businessweek article....
The euro zone’s third-biggest economy is seen as the next domino at risk of toppling after the European Union’s June 9 deal to lend Spain $125 billion in bank bailout funds. Yields on Italy’s 10-year government bonds reached 6.2 percent on June 13, up from just 4.8 percent in March. By pushing up Italy’s borrowing costs out of fear of default, investors are making a default more likely.
A recent Fortune article detailed some of the economic fundamentals that have so many economists deeply concerned about the Italian economy right now....
The main glaring risk threats that could propel Italy down the path to become Europe's next domino is the size of country's outstanding debt (at €1.9 trillion or 120% of GDP); the mountain of debt it has to roll over in the next 12 months (nearly €400 billion); and the market's cracking credibility around Prime Minister Mario Monti's ability to reduce the country's fiscal footprint and spur growth.
Further, fear around Italy's creditworthiness, which has recently been expressed by near cycle highs in sovereign CDS spreads and government yields on the 10-year bond, follow some rather glaring negative fundamentals over recent quarters and years: declining GDP over the last three consecutive quarters; a rising unemployment rate (especially among its youth); deterioration in labor market competitiveness; and increased competition for export goods to its key trading partners.
#8 Greece
I have written extensively about the financial nightmare that is unfolding in Greece. Unemployment has soared past the 20 percent mark, youth unemployment is above 50 percent, the Greek economy has contracted by close to 25 percent over the past four years and now Greek politicians are saying that a third bailout package may be necessary.
#9 Cyprus
The tiny island nation of Cyprus has become the fifth member of the eurozone to formally request a bailout. This is yet another sign that the eurozone is rapidly falling apart.
#10 Germany
German Chancellor Angela Merkel continues to promote an austerity path for Europe and she continues to maintain her very firm position against any kind of eurozone debt sharing.
Merkel, speaking to a conference in Berlin today as Spain announced it would formally seek aid for its banks, dismissed “euro bonds, euro bills and European deposit insurance with joint liability and much more” as “economically wrong and counterproductive,” saying that they ran against the German constitution.
“It’s not a bold prediction to say that in Brussels most eyes -- all eyes -- will be on Germany yet again,” Merkel said. “I say quite openly: when I think of the summit on Thursday I’m concerned that once again the discussion will be far too much about all kinds of ideas for joint liability and far too little about improved oversight and structural measures.”
In fact, Merkel says that there will be no eurobonds "as long as I live". This means that there will be no "quick fix" for the problems that are unfolding in Europe.
#11 Bank Runs
Every single day, hundreds of billions of dollars is being pulled out of banks in southern Europe. Much of that money is being transferred to banks in northern Europe.
In a previous article I included an extremely alarming quote from a CNBC article about the unfolding banking crisis in Europe....
Financial advisers and private bankers whose clients have accounts too large to be covered by a Europe-wide guarantee on deposits up to 100,000 euros ($125,000), are reporting a "bank run by wire transfer" that has picked up during May.
Much of this money has headed north to banks in London, Frankfurt and Geneva, financial advisers say.
"It's been an ongoing process but it certainly picked up pace a couple of weeks ago We believe there is a continuous 2-3 year bank run by wire transfer," said Lorne Baring, managing director at B Capital, a Geneva-based pan European wealth management firm.
How long can these bank runs continue before banking systems start to collapse?
#12 Preparations For The Collapse Of The Eurozone
As I have written about previously, the smart money has already written off southern Europe. All over the continent major financial institutions are preparing for the worst. For example, just check out what Visa Europe is doing....
Visa Europe is holding weekly meetings to discuss scenarios in the event the euro zone collapses, joining other companies that are preparing for a potential breakup of the currency bloc.
Chief Commercial Officer Steve Perry said Tuesday that management at the U.K.-based credit-card company meets weekly to explore various possible outcomes, including a total collapse of the euro zone.
#13 Global Lending Is Slowing Down
All over the globe the flow of credit is beginning to freeze up. In fact, the Bank for International Settlements says that worldwide lending is contracting at the fastest pace since the financial crisis of 2008.
#14 Sophisticated Cyber Attacks On Banks
It is being reported that "very sophisticated" hackers have successfully raided dozens of banks in Europe. So far, it is being estimated that they have stolen 60 million euros....
Sixty million euro has been stolen from bank accounts in a massive cyber bank raid after fraudsters raided dozens of financial institutions around the world.
According to a joint report by software security firm McAfee and Guardian Analytics, more than 60 firms have suffered from what it has called an "insider level of understanding".
What happens someday if we wake up and all the money in the banks is gone?
#15 U.S. Municipal Bankruptcies
All over the United States there are cities and towns on the verge of financial disaster. This week Stockton, California became the largest U.S. city to ever declare bankruptcy, but the reality is that this is only just the beginning of the municipal debt crisis....
Stockton, California, said it will file for bankruptcy after talks with bondholders and labor unions failed, making the agricultural center the biggest U.S. city to seek court protection from creditors.
“The city is fiscally insolvent and must seek Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection,” Stockton said in a statement released yesterday after its council voted 6-1 to adopt a spending plan for operating under bankruptcy protection.
#16 The Obamacare Decision
The U.S. economy is already a complete and total mess, and now the Obamacare decision is going to throw a huge wet blanket on it. All over America, small business owners are saying that they are going to have to let some workers go because they cannot afford to keep them all under Obamacare.
It would be hard to imagine a more job killing law than Obamacare, and now that the Supreme Court decision has finally been announced we are going to see many businesses making some really hard decisions.
#17 The U.S. Election
It is being reported that Barack Obama is putting together an army of "thousands of lawyers" to deal with any disputes that arise over voting procedures or results.
It certainly looks like this upcoming election is going to be extremely close, and there is the potential that we could end up facing another Bush v. Gore scenario where the fate of the presidency is determined in court. This campaign season is likely to be exceptionally nasty, and I fear what may happen if there is not a decisive winner on election day. The possibility of significant civil unrest is certainly there.
We definitely live in "interesting" times.
Personally, I am deeply concerned about the September, October, November time frame.
The other day, Joe Biden delivered a speech in which he made the following statement....
"It's A Depression For Millions And Millions Of Americans"
And what Biden said was right for once. Millions of Americans are out of work right now and millions of Americans have fallen out of the middle class in recent years. If you have lost everything, it does feel like you are living through a depression.
When people lose everything, they tend to get desperate. And desperate people do desperate things - especially when they are angry.
A whole host of recent opinion polls have shown that anger and frustration in the United States are rising to unprecedented levels. The ingredients are certainly there for an explosion. Someone just needs to come along and light the fuse. We truly do live in frightening times.
Let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst.
**********************************
PS. This is a concerning and thought-provoking article from the http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/ website (please go there for more details). But on top of their 17 dire warnings, I would like to add a few more of my own.
18. There is every chance of some major terrorist action in the upcoming London Olympic Games, and even if the mega counter-terrorist operation being put into place succeeds, watch out for diversionary tactics from the enemy as all of the main focus will be on London!
19. The USA Presidential elections were mentioned briefly above, but the scenario was omitted which could present us with a MORMON as the most powerful man in the Western World come November! Mitt Romney is already five per cent ahead of Obama in the national polls, but either way we will have a Mormon or a Muslim leading the USA come November. It is also worth mentioning here, that the Book of Mormon predicts that a powerful world leader from within their ranks will emerge at the end times to put the world to rights, so to speak! Obviously, this is not Scripture, but Satan has always used devious deceptive methods to lead people astray, and none better illustrated than the false Koran and the devilish faith of Islam!
20. There is a splendid new book out right now called "Petrus Romanus - The FINAL Pope Is Here". Pope Benedict has turned 85 and is increasingly showing signs of frailty and fatigue. Thes observations have prompted speculation over whether he will be the first pontiff in seven centuries to resign! He is the only Pope in living memory to discuss the possibility of resignation, and has recently said he recognises he is now in "the last stretch of his life"! Benedict is now the oldest reigning Pope since Leo XIII, who died aged 93 in 1903. For more than 800 years, scholars have pointed to the dark augury having to do with "The Last Pope". The prophecy, taken from St.Malachy's "Prophecy Of The Popes", is among a list of verses predicting each of the Roman Catholic Popes from Pope Celestine II to the final Pope, "Peter The Roman", whose reign would end in the destruction of Rome. Tradition holds that Malachy had been called to Rome by Pope Innocent II, and while there, he experienced the vision of the future Popes, including the last one, which he wrote down in a series of cryptic phrases. According to the prophecy, the next Pope (following Benedict XVI) is the final Pontiff, Petrus Romanus, or Peter The Roman. The idea by some Catholics that the next Pope on St.Malachy's list, heralds the beginning of "great apostasy" followed by "great tribulation" sets the stage for the imminent unfolding of apocalyptic events, something many non-Catholics agree with. This will give rise to the false prophet, who according to the Book Of Revelation leads the world's religious communities into embracing a political leader known as the Antichrist!
21. The much publicised Mayan Calendar predicts "the end of the world" on December 21 this year! This also ties in with the ancient prophesies of the Inkas, the Summarians, and several other of the "ancient religious" tribes of times gone by. Scripture tells us that this world will never end, but is it possible that a current "age" might come to a cataclismic end with judgement and tribulation? There are so many frightening scenarios going on right now in this decaying world of ours, that there is much speculation that something very severe and calamatous could occur to our planet around this crucial November/December period!
22. Read again the prophecies of Lance Lambert and John Hayward on this blog. There is no doubt that there is a "shaking" going on in the world (Haggai 2:6), and that Britain, Europe, and even the mighty USA are suffering what many believe is judgement from Yeshua! And things will get worse, not better!
23. Also, read again the article on the dreams of impending further terrible judgement to be passed on the USA in the second half of 2012. They are from reliable and normal Christians with good pedigrees, both in leadership and others well acquainted with the Scriptures, not the usual scare-monger type of "nutter" out there, so read them again, and be warned!
It is the 3rd of July today friends, and the second half of 2012 has begun. The first six months have seen some extreme weather patterns, with floods, droughts, famines, earthquakes, tornadoes, giant hail stones, wild bush fires destroying vast areas, economic meltdown worldwide, the possible collapse of the Euro and even the Eurozone itself, Rampant apostasy in the Church, the emergence of new age and new religious philosophies, and much, much more. Well, if this is just for "starters" you had better hold on tight to your seat belts, for the second half of 2012 promises to be one heck of a roller coaster ride!
BRIAN.
Just think about it. The stock market crash of 1929 happened in the fall. "Black Monday" happened on October 19th, 1987. The financial crisis of 2008 started in the fall. There just seems to be something about the fall that brings out the worst in the financial markets. But of course there is not a stock market crash every year.
So are there specific reasons why we should be extremely concerned about what is coming this year? Yes, there are. The ingredients for a "perfect storm" are slowly coming together, and in the months ahead we could very well see the next wave of the economic collapse strike.
Sadly, we have never even come close to recovering from the last recession, and this next crisis might end up being even more painful than the last one.
The following are 17 reasons to be extremely concerned about the second half of 2012....
#1 Historical Trends
A recent IMF research paper by Luc Laeven and Fabián Valencia showed that a banking crisis is far more likely to start in September than in any other month.
So what will this September bring?
#2 JP Morgan
Do you remember back in May when JP Morgan announced that it would be taking a 2 billion dollar trading loss on some derivatives trades gone bad? Well, the New York Times is now reporting that the real figure could reach 9 billion dollars, but nobody really knows for sure. At some point is JP Morgan going to need a bailout? If so, what is that going to do to the U.S. financial system?
#3 Derivatives
Last week, Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of 15 major global banks. As a result, a number of them have been required to post billions of dollars in additional collateral against derivatives exposures....
Citigroup’s two-notch long-term rating downgrade from A3 to Baa2 could have led to US$500m in additional liquidity and funding demands due to derivative triggers and exchange margin requirements, according to the bank’s 10Q regulatory filing at the end of the first quarter.
Morgan Stanley – which Moody’s downgraded from A2 to Baa1 – said a two-notch downgrade from both Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s could spur an additional US$6.8bn of collateral requirements in its latest 10Q. The bank did not break down its potential collateral calls under a scenario where only Moody’s downgraded the bank below the Single A threshold.
Royal Bank of Scotland estimated it may have to post £9bn of collateral as a result of the one-notch Moody’s downgrade to Baa1 in a statement on June 21, but did not detail how much of this additional requirement was driven by margin for swaps exposures.
The worldwide derivatives market is starting to show some cracks, and at some point this is going to become a major disaster.
Remember, the 9 largest U.S. banks have a total of more than 200 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives. When this bubble completely bursts it is going to be impossible to fix.
#4 LEAP/E2020 Warning
LEAP/E2020 has issued a red alert for the global financial system for this fall. They are warning that the "second half of 2012" will represent a "major inflection point" for the global economic system....
The shock of the autumn 2008 will seem like a small summer storm compared to what will affect planet in several months.
In fact LEAP/E2020 has never seen the chronological convergence of such a series of explosive and so fundamental factors (economy, finances, geopolitical…) since 2006, the start of its work on the global systemic crisis.
Logically, in our modest attempt to regularly publish a “crisis weather forecast”, we must therefore give our readers a “Red Alert” because the upcoming events which are readying themselves to shake the world system next September/ October belong to this category.
#5 Increasing Pessimism
One recent survey of corporate executives found that only 20 percent of them expect the global economy to improve over the next 12 months and 48 percent of them expect the global economy to get worse over the next 12 months.
#6 Spain
The Spanish financial system is basically a total nightmare at this point. Moody's recently downgraded Spanish debt to one level above junk status, and earlier this week Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of 28 major Spanish banks.
According to CNBC, Spain's short-term borrowing costs are now about three times higher than they were just one month ago....
Spain's short-term borrowing costs nearly tripled at auction on Tuesday, underlining the country's precarious finances as it struggles against recession and juggles with a debt crisis among its newly downgraded banks.
The yield paid on a 3-month bill was 2.362 percent, up from just 0.846 percent a month ago. For six-month paper, it leapt to 3.237 percent from 1.737 percent in May.
Needless to say, this is very, very bad news.
#7 Italy
The situation in Italy continues to deteriorate and many analysts believe that it could be one of the next dominoes to fall. The following is from a recent Businessweek article....
The euro zone’s third-biggest economy is seen as the next domino at risk of toppling after the European Union’s June 9 deal to lend Spain $125 billion in bank bailout funds. Yields on Italy’s 10-year government bonds reached 6.2 percent on June 13, up from just 4.8 percent in March. By pushing up Italy’s borrowing costs out of fear of default, investors are making a default more likely.
A recent Fortune article detailed some of the economic fundamentals that have so many economists deeply concerned about the Italian economy right now....
The main glaring risk threats that could propel Italy down the path to become Europe's next domino is the size of country's outstanding debt (at €1.9 trillion or 120% of GDP); the mountain of debt it has to roll over in the next 12 months (nearly €400 billion); and the market's cracking credibility around Prime Minister Mario Monti's ability to reduce the country's fiscal footprint and spur growth.
Further, fear around Italy's creditworthiness, which has recently been expressed by near cycle highs in sovereign CDS spreads and government yields on the 10-year bond, follow some rather glaring negative fundamentals over recent quarters and years: declining GDP over the last three consecutive quarters; a rising unemployment rate (especially among its youth); deterioration in labor market competitiveness; and increased competition for export goods to its key trading partners.
#8 Greece
I have written extensively about the financial nightmare that is unfolding in Greece. Unemployment has soared past the 20 percent mark, youth unemployment is above 50 percent, the Greek economy has contracted by close to 25 percent over the past four years and now Greek politicians are saying that a third bailout package may be necessary.
#9 Cyprus
The tiny island nation of Cyprus has become the fifth member of the eurozone to formally request a bailout. This is yet another sign that the eurozone is rapidly falling apart.
#10 Germany
German Chancellor Angela Merkel continues to promote an austerity path for Europe and she continues to maintain her very firm position against any kind of eurozone debt sharing.
Merkel, speaking to a conference in Berlin today as Spain announced it would formally seek aid for its banks, dismissed “euro bonds, euro bills and European deposit insurance with joint liability and much more” as “economically wrong and counterproductive,” saying that they ran against the German constitution.
“It’s not a bold prediction to say that in Brussels most eyes -- all eyes -- will be on Germany yet again,” Merkel said. “I say quite openly: when I think of the summit on Thursday I’m concerned that once again the discussion will be far too much about all kinds of ideas for joint liability and far too little about improved oversight and structural measures.”
In fact, Merkel says that there will be no eurobonds "as long as I live". This means that there will be no "quick fix" for the problems that are unfolding in Europe.
#11 Bank Runs
Every single day, hundreds of billions of dollars is being pulled out of banks in southern Europe. Much of that money is being transferred to banks in northern Europe.
In a previous article I included an extremely alarming quote from a CNBC article about the unfolding banking crisis in Europe....
Financial advisers and private bankers whose clients have accounts too large to be covered by a Europe-wide guarantee on deposits up to 100,000 euros ($125,000), are reporting a "bank run by wire transfer" that has picked up during May.
Much of this money has headed north to banks in London, Frankfurt and Geneva, financial advisers say.
"It's been an ongoing process but it certainly picked up pace a couple of weeks ago We believe there is a continuous 2-3 year bank run by wire transfer," said Lorne Baring, managing director at B Capital, a Geneva-based pan European wealth management firm.
How long can these bank runs continue before banking systems start to collapse?
#12 Preparations For The Collapse Of The Eurozone
As I have written about previously, the smart money has already written off southern Europe. All over the continent major financial institutions are preparing for the worst. For example, just check out what Visa Europe is doing....
Visa Europe is holding weekly meetings to discuss scenarios in the event the euro zone collapses, joining other companies that are preparing for a potential breakup of the currency bloc.
Chief Commercial Officer Steve Perry said Tuesday that management at the U.K.-based credit-card company meets weekly to explore various possible outcomes, including a total collapse of the euro zone.
#13 Global Lending Is Slowing Down
All over the globe the flow of credit is beginning to freeze up. In fact, the Bank for International Settlements says that worldwide lending is contracting at the fastest pace since the financial crisis of 2008.
#14 Sophisticated Cyber Attacks On Banks
It is being reported that "very sophisticated" hackers have successfully raided dozens of banks in Europe. So far, it is being estimated that they have stolen 60 million euros....
Sixty million euro has been stolen from bank accounts in a massive cyber bank raid after fraudsters raided dozens of financial institutions around the world.
According to a joint report by software security firm McAfee and Guardian Analytics, more than 60 firms have suffered from what it has called an "insider level of understanding".
What happens someday if we wake up and all the money in the banks is gone?
#15 U.S. Municipal Bankruptcies
All over the United States there are cities and towns on the verge of financial disaster. This week Stockton, California became the largest U.S. city to ever declare bankruptcy, but the reality is that this is only just the beginning of the municipal debt crisis....
Stockton, California, said it will file for bankruptcy after talks with bondholders and labor unions failed, making the agricultural center the biggest U.S. city to seek court protection from creditors.
“The city is fiscally insolvent and must seek Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection,” Stockton said in a statement released yesterday after its council voted 6-1 to adopt a spending plan for operating under bankruptcy protection.
#16 The Obamacare Decision
The U.S. economy is already a complete and total mess, and now the Obamacare decision is going to throw a huge wet blanket on it. All over America, small business owners are saying that they are going to have to let some workers go because they cannot afford to keep them all under Obamacare.
It would be hard to imagine a more job killing law than Obamacare, and now that the Supreme Court decision has finally been announced we are going to see many businesses making some really hard decisions.
#17 The U.S. Election
It is being reported that Barack Obama is putting together an army of "thousands of lawyers" to deal with any disputes that arise over voting procedures or results.
It certainly looks like this upcoming election is going to be extremely close, and there is the potential that we could end up facing another Bush v. Gore scenario where the fate of the presidency is determined in court. This campaign season is likely to be exceptionally nasty, and I fear what may happen if there is not a decisive winner on election day. The possibility of significant civil unrest is certainly there.
We definitely live in "interesting" times.
Personally, I am deeply concerned about the September, October, November time frame.
The other day, Joe Biden delivered a speech in which he made the following statement....
"It's A Depression For Millions And Millions Of Americans"
And what Biden said was right for once. Millions of Americans are out of work right now and millions of Americans have fallen out of the middle class in recent years. If you have lost everything, it does feel like you are living through a depression.
When people lose everything, they tend to get desperate. And desperate people do desperate things - especially when they are angry.
A whole host of recent opinion polls have shown that anger and frustration in the United States are rising to unprecedented levels. The ingredients are certainly there for an explosion. Someone just needs to come along and light the fuse. We truly do live in frightening times.
Let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst.
**********************************
PS. This is a concerning and thought-provoking article from the http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/ website (please go there for more details). But on top of their 17 dire warnings, I would like to add a few more of my own.
18. There is every chance of some major terrorist action in the upcoming London Olympic Games, and even if the mega counter-terrorist operation being put into place succeeds, watch out for diversionary tactics from the enemy as all of the main focus will be on London!
19. The USA Presidential elections were mentioned briefly above, but the scenario was omitted which could present us with a MORMON as the most powerful man in the Western World come November! Mitt Romney is already five per cent ahead of Obama in the national polls, but either way we will have a Mormon or a Muslim leading the USA come November. It is also worth mentioning here, that the Book of Mormon predicts that a powerful world leader from within their ranks will emerge at the end times to put the world to rights, so to speak! Obviously, this is not Scripture, but Satan has always used devious deceptive methods to lead people astray, and none better illustrated than the false Koran and the devilish faith of Islam!
20. There is a splendid new book out right now called "Petrus Romanus - The FINAL Pope Is Here". Pope Benedict has turned 85 and is increasingly showing signs of frailty and fatigue. Thes observations have prompted speculation over whether he will be the first pontiff in seven centuries to resign! He is the only Pope in living memory to discuss the possibility of resignation, and has recently said he recognises he is now in "the last stretch of his life"! Benedict is now the oldest reigning Pope since Leo XIII, who died aged 93 in 1903. For more than 800 years, scholars have pointed to the dark augury having to do with "The Last Pope". The prophecy, taken from St.Malachy's "Prophecy Of The Popes", is among a list of verses predicting each of the Roman Catholic Popes from Pope Celestine II to the final Pope, "Peter The Roman", whose reign would end in the destruction of Rome. Tradition holds that Malachy had been called to Rome by Pope Innocent II, and while there, he experienced the vision of the future Popes, including the last one, which he wrote down in a series of cryptic phrases. According to the prophecy, the next Pope (following Benedict XVI) is the final Pontiff, Petrus Romanus, or Peter The Roman. The idea by some Catholics that the next Pope on St.Malachy's list, heralds the beginning of "great apostasy" followed by "great tribulation" sets the stage for the imminent unfolding of apocalyptic events, something many non-Catholics agree with. This will give rise to the false prophet, who according to the Book Of Revelation leads the world's religious communities into embracing a political leader known as the Antichrist!
21. The much publicised Mayan Calendar predicts "the end of the world" on December 21 this year! This also ties in with the ancient prophesies of the Inkas, the Summarians, and several other of the "ancient religious" tribes of times gone by. Scripture tells us that this world will never end, but is it possible that a current "age" might come to a cataclismic end with judgement and tribulation? There are so many frightening scenarios going on right now in this decaying world of ours, that there is much speculation that something very severe and calamatous could occur to our planet around this crucial November/December period!
22. Read again the prophecies of Lance Lambert and John Hayward on this blog. There is no doubt that there is a "shaking" going on in the world (Haggai 2:6), and that Britain, Europe, and even the mighty USA are suffering what many believe is judgement from Yeshua! And things will get worse, not better!
23. Also, read again the article on the dreams of impending further terrible judgement to be passed on the USA in the second half of 2012. They are from reliable and normal Christians with good pedigrees, both in leadership and others well acquainted with the Scriptures, not the usual scare-monger type of "nutter" out there, so read them again, and be warned!
It is the 3rd of July today friends, and the second half of 2012 has begun. The first six months have seen some extreme weather patterns, with floods, droughts, famines, earthquakes, tornadoes, giant hail stones, wild bush fires destroying vast areas, economic meltdown worldwide, the possible collapse of the Euro and even the Eurozone itself, Rampant apostasy in the Church, the emergence of new age and new religious philosophies, and much, much more. Well, if this is just for "starters" you had better hold on tight to your seat belts, for the second half of 2012 promises to be one heck of a roller coaster ride!
BRIAN.
THE BIBLE ACTUALLY PREDICTED THE RETURN OF ISRAEL TO THEIR BELOVED HOMELAND IN 1948. WHAT A FANTASTIC BOOK THE BIBLE IS, AND WHAT A MAGNIFICENT LORD JESUS WE SERVE!
Bible Predicted Date Of Israel's Return
The author of “Covenant: G-d’s Plan for Israel in the Last Days,” a book by Baruch Battlestein published in Italy, cites prophecies by Ezekiel and Moses that pinpoint with precision the date of Israel’s return to the land in May 1948.
“Was May 14, 1948, chosen by G-d as the exact day in time to resurrect the nation of Israel, or was it just some random date in human history?” Battlestein asks. “Could it be possible that this exact date was prophesied thousands of years before in Scripture?”
Battlestein cites three verses to reach his conclusion that the date of Israel’s return to the land after 1,900 years was indeed prophesied accurately.
The first is Ezekiel 37:21-22: “And say unto them, ‘Thus saith the Lord God; Behold, I will take the children of Israel from among the heathen, whither they be gone, and will gather them on every side, and bring them into their own land: And I will make them one nation in the land upon the mountains of Israel; and one king shall be king to them all: and they shall be no more two nations, neither shall they be divided into two kingdoms any more at all.’”
This verse, Battlestein points out, shows “that it was the will of the Lord to bring them back to their own land and make them one nation in the land.”
The second citation of interest is Leviticus 26:23-24: “And if ye will not be reformed by me by these things, but will walk contrary unto me; Then will I also walk contrary unto you, and will punish you yet seven times for your sins.”
“As a stand-alone verse this is very strange, and when applying it to the history of Israel it seems impossible to fully understand,” writes the author. “However, when we read the Book of Ezekiel we find another strange prophecy that leads us back to G-d’s prophecy in Leviticus. It is through these prophecies that we come to an understanding that May 14, 1948, was the exact date chosen by G-d for the resurrection of Israel thousands of years before it took place.”
That second Ezekiel citation is Ezekiel 4:4-6: “Lie thou also upon thy left side, and lay the iniquity of the house of Israel upon it: according to the number of the days that thou shalt lie upon it thou shalt bear their iniquity. For I have laid upon thee the years of their iniquity, according to the number of the days, three hundred and ninety days: so shalt thou bear the iniquity of the house of Israel. And when thou hast accomplished them, lie again on thy right side, and thou shalt bear the iniquity of the house of Judah forty days: I have appointed thee each day for a year.”
“In this strange prophecy, Ezekiel is commanded to first lay on his left side for 390 days and then on his right side for 40 days, for a total of 430 days, as punishment for the iniquities of the house of Israel,” explains Battlestein.
“We are told that this punishment represents one day for each year. Taken alone, the prophecies in Leviticus and Ezekiel do not take on any specific significance. However, when we combine them, the results are astonishing.”
He continues: “G-d decreed to Israel a total of 430 years of punishment for her sins against Him. That punishment consisted of physical removal from the land G-d had promised His people. Israel’s captivity in Babylon was exactly 70 years as prophesied by the prophet Jeremiah (Jeremiah 25:11-12; 29:10). Therefore, the first 70 years of Israel’s punishment was completed when the Babylonian captivity ended.
By the decree of King Cyrus, conquerer or Babylon, the Jews were set free from their captivity in the year 538 B.C.E. The year 538 B.C.E, therefore becomes the base year with which we begin our calculations: 430 years minus 70 year captivity equals 360 years of remaining punishment to come.”
That’s where the Leviticus prophecy kicks in, says Battlestein. The 360 years needed to be multiplied by seven, for a total of 2,520 years.
Using the 360-day Hebrew calendar, that totals 907,200 days. When converted to the 365-day calendar, the 2,520 years or 907,200 days becomes 2,485 years and five months or 2,485.5 years and months. If you subtract 538 years B.C.E, you get 1,947 years and five months.
Battlestein reminds that there was no year zero.
“Therefore, the year 1,947.5 we call the year 1948.5,” he explains. “So exactly 1,947.5 years after 538 B.C.E., we come to the year 1948.5,” he writes. “May is the fifth month of the modern calendar, and on May 14, 1948, Israel arose from the ashes of extinction to become a nation!”
Battlestein is a messianic Jew who lived in Israel until moving to the U.S. He is the author of several books.
WOULD A PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE BY ISRAEL ON IRAN BRING THE DREADED MIDDLE EAST WAR MOST PUNDITS PREDICT? PROBABLY NOT! NO, THEN READ THIS.
After An Israeli Strike On Iran
How would Iranians respond to an Israeli strike against their nuclear infrastructure? The answers given to this question matter greatly, as predictions about Iran’s response will affect not only Jerusalem’s decision, but also how much other states will work to impede an Israeli strike.
Analysts generally offer best-case predictions for policies of deterrence and containment (some commentators even go so far as to welcome an Iranian nuclear capability) while forecasting worst-case results from a strike.
They foresee Tehran doing everything possible to retaliate, such as kidnapping, terrorism, missile attacks, naval combat, and closing the Strait of Hormuz.
These predictions ignore two facts: Neither of Israel’s prior strikes against enemy states building nuclear weapons — Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007 — prompted retaliation; and a review of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s history since 1979 points to, in the words of Michael Eisenstadt and Michael Knights, “a more measured and less apocalyptic — if still sobering — assessment of the likely aftermath of a preventive strike.”
Eisenstadt and Knights of the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy provide an excellent guide to possible scenarios in “Beyond Worst-Case Analysis: Iran’s Likely Responses to an Israeli Preventive Strike.”
Their survey of Iranian behavior over the past three decades leads them to anticipate that three main principles would likely shape and limit Tehran’s response to an Israeli strike: an insistence on reciprocity, a caution not to gratuitously make enemies, and a wish to deter further Israeli (or American) strikes.
The mullahs, in other words, face serious limits on their ability to retaliate, including military weakness and a pressing need not to make yet more external enemies. With these guidelines in place, Eisenstadt and Knights consider eight possible Iranian responses, which must be assessed while keeping in mind the alternative to preemptive action — namely, apocalyptic Islamists controlling nuclear weapons:
1. Terrorist attacks on Israeli, Jewish, and U.S. targets. Likely, but causing limited destruction.
2. Kidnapping of U.S. citizens, especially in Iraq. Likely, but limited in impact, as in the 1980s in Lebanon.
3. Attacks on Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan. Very likely, especially via proxies, but causing limited destruction.
4. Missile strikes on Israel. Likely: a few missiles from Iran getting through Israeli defenses, leading to casualties likely in the low hundreds; missiles from Hezbollah limited in number due to domestic Lebanese considerations.
Unlikely: Hamas getting involved, having distanced itself from Tehran; the Syrian government interfering, since it is battling for its life against an ever-stronger opposition army and possibly the Turkish armed forces. Overall, missile attacks are unlikely to do devastating damage.
5. Attacks on neighboring states. Likely: especially using terrorist proxies, for the sake of deniability. Unlikely: missile strikes, for Tehran does not want to make more enemies.
6. Clashes with the U.S. Navy. Likely, but, given the balance of power, doing limited damage.
7. Covertly mining the Strait of Hormuz. Likely, causing a run-up in energy prices.
8. Attempted closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Unlikely: difficult to achieve and potentially too damaging to Iranian interests, because the country needs the strait for commerce.
The authors also consider three potential side effects of an Israeli strike. Yes, Iranians might rally to their government in the immediate aftermath of a strike, but in the longer term Tehran “could be criticized for handling the nuclear dossier in a way that led to military confrontation.”
The so-called Arab street is perpetually predicted to rise up in response to outside military attack, but it never does; it’s likely that unrest among the Shiite Muslims of the Persian Gulf would be counterbalanced by the many Arabs quietly cheering the Israelis.
As for Iran leaving the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and starting an overt, crash nuclear-weapons program, while “a very real possibility,” the more the Iranians retaliated against a strike, the harder they would find it to obtain the parts for such a program.
In all, these dangers are unpleasant but not cataclysmic, manageable not devastating. Eisenstadt and Knights expect a short phase of high-intensity Iranian response, to be followed by a “protracted low-intensity conflict that could last for months or even years” — much as already exists between Iran and Israel.
An Israeli preventive strike, they conclude, while a “high-risk endeavor carrying a potential for escalation in the Levant or the Gulf . . . would not be the apocalyptic event some foresee.”
This analysis makes a convincing case that the danger of nuclear weapons falling into Iranian hands far exceeds the danger of a military strike to prevent this from happening.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)